Starbucks v Dunkin'
Stock Market Analysis

1 Company Which Can Knock Starbucks Off Its Coffee Throne

While Starbucks remains the king of the coffee space, Dunkin’ has had a hell of a year so far, and might just catch up.

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There have been few success stories in recent decades to match the extraordinary growth of Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX). Founded in 1971, the company steadily rose over time from a small Seattle chain to the coffee giant we all know and love (or love to hate). It’s one example of a company showing the awesome power of brand. From 1987 onwards, Starbucks has been opening roughly two stores around the world each day, and a new China store about every 15 hours.

In the past two months, however, the company has seen an unusual 15% decline in its share price. We can attribute this partly to concerns among investors about a potential oncoming recession. With its premium prices and reputation as a minor daily luxury, Starbucks is particularly sensitive to shifts in consumer spending. Some of these fears should be allayed by the company’s continued growth in China, but we’ll get a better indicator of its overall financial health when the next earnings report comes out at the end of October.

For those wary investors, take a look at our 2 Recession Ready Stocks.

Meanwhile, another household name in the breakfast department has been rising through the ranks. Dunkin’ Brands Group (NASDAQ: DNKN) has long been associated with its donut offering, but the Massachusetts-based company is making a big push on coffee, with plans to open between 200 and 250 new stores per annum for the next three years. 

The push for growth is part of a broader strategy for Dunkin’. Last year, the company made a whopping $100 million investment in its U.S. business, mostly for renovations and upgrades to its stores. In the words of CEO David Hoffmann, the money was spent on “strengthening the areas of the business that will produce sustainable long-term results”. This included improving machinery, adding drive-thru lanes to a variety of locations, and making its premium baked goods offering more prominent. It also contributed to a major shake-up of the Dunkin’ menu, which has since further emphasized its espresso-based beverages, including lattes and cappuccinos — a clear step in Starbucks’s territory. Significantly, the move came soon after the brand dropped the word “donut” from its name.

The strategy seems to be working. Dunkin’ revealed back in January that it sells “approximately 1.7 billion servings of… hot and iced coffee annually”, while sales of its espresso-based products jumped 40% in the second quarter of 2019. Even with this impressive growth, there’s little doubt about who’s on top. Last year, Starbucks saw its revenue climb 10% to almost $25 billion. Dunkin’ reported revenue of $1.32 billion, a 3.6% rise.

Check out how Starbucks holds on to its customers in Sticky Business: How Companies Keep Their Customers.

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The gap is far less extreme when we look at the companies’ respective footprints: more than 28,000 Starbucks stores compared to about 20,500 Dunkin’ stores. However, with its huge push to expand its presence throughout the U.S., Dunkin’ could conceivably match its larger rival in terms of brand ubiquity. The company has a long way to go before it can pose a credible threat to Starbucks’s share in the already crowded coffee market, but as Hoffmann has said, Dunkin’ is in it for the long term.

MyWallSt operates a full disclosure policy. MyWallSt staff currently hold long positions in Dunkin’ and Starbucks. Read our full disclosure policy here.

MyWallSt Contributor
MyWallSt Contributor
This article was written by one of our MyWallSt freelancers.